- - Steelers vs. Ravens Sunday Night Football betting odds, picks and predictions: Best bets, player props

Matt RussellJanuary 3, 2026 at 4:56 AM

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With all due respect to Saturday’s high-stakes action, for Sunday night’s regular-season finale there was only one choice.

The historical footage of the Ravens-Steelers rivalry isn’t particularly grainy, having only begun just before the turn of the millennium, but Baltimore and Pittsburgh’s two battles per year are loaded with lore. A wacky AFC North season had to come down to an on-field, win-or-go-home primetime installment, that the football world will be watching.

Since our attention will be captured, we might as well have a wager or few on the game, just to see if we can’t make some memories for when we look back at this particularly intense chapter between these modern-classic foes.

Odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Baltimore Ravens (-3.5, 41) at Pittsburgh Steelers

Lamar Jackson’ is back practicing in full, something that the market expected in opening this line at a field goal or more last Sunday night.

While Baltimore got a big win with Tyler Huntley at the helm in Green Bay last Saturday, their average expected play level is obviously higher with Jackson, and it changes the projected point spread from around a pick’em to where you’re having to lay points with the Ravens on the road. What complicates things is the level of reliance on the version of Jackson we’ll get — and how long we’ll get it for.

Even at the best of times for Jackson, the Steelers have been able to slow the Ravens’ offense during his MVP-caliber seasons:

Jackson’s career averages:

80-35 record

64.7 completion %

184:55 TD:INT ratio

7.8 yards per attempt

56.6 rushing yards per game

35 rushing TD in 115 games

Fewer than 2.0 sacks per game

Jackson’s averages against Pittsburgh:

3-6

57.4%

9:10 TD:INT

6.7 YPA

41.4 rush YPG

1 career rushing TD

Almost 3.0 sacks per game

While the Steelers’ defense has left something to be desired this season, at 21st in Expected Points Added per Play (EPA/Play), in the Week 14 matchup in Baltimore, Pittsburgh’s was third-best, forcing -0.15 EPA/Play, while limiting the damage from Derrick Henry to 94 yards on 25 carries and no touchdowns.

While a few judgement calls went against the Ravens at home, it was clear that a point spread of -5.5 gave Baltimore too much credit. Four weeks later, and there’s only been a two-point adjustment to the line for the shift in home-field.

Part of that may be stemming from the absence of DK Metcalf — the field-stretcher for Aaron Rodgers — which was felt last week in a loss at Cleveland, and Metcalf had his best game as a Steeler in Week 14. He’s also averaged just 50 yards in his other 14 games this season, and where the Steelers were able to gash the Ravens was when the veteran quarterback was able to check Pittsburgh into plays that left the defense confused, leaving wide-open options.

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All season long, the assumption has been made that the Ravens would eventually flip a switch and match their output to their power rating in the market, but even at their healthiest that hasn’t been the case against other playoff-caliber opponents.

One win, where the already-clinched Packers weren’t able to match the Ravens’ desperation and aggression, doesn’t confirm the high-regard that Baltimore carries here, considering they’ve blown fourth-quarter leads to the Bills early and the Patriots late.

Even if the Ravens do manage a 10-point lead on the road, there’s always room for Rodgers to make this game close late, but it’s more likely that we’re in for the usual tightly-contested game that John Harbaugh and Mike Tomlin have found themselves in for almost two decades.

Pick: Steelers +3.5

Player propsLamar Jackson under 232.5 passing and rushing yards (-115)

We’ve cited the historical numbers for Jackson against the Steelers, and while the names may change on Pittsburgh, the general game plan shouldn’t. While a sore Jackson may give Baltimore a better chance to win than Huntley, it doesn’t mean he’ll be freely running, since he hasn’t done as much of that this season anyway. Plus, there’s always the chance that Jackson can’t make it through all 60 minutes.

Jonnu Smith over 2.5 receptions (+100)

Pat Freiermuth was the leading receiver for the Steelers with Metcalf unavailable last week, but he was used as a field-stretcher up the middle, catching three of five Rodgers’ passes. The other big change in personnel for Pittsburgh is the season-ending injury to fellow tight end Darnell Washington. Once he went out Smith became Rodgers’ outlet, catching all five targets but for just 12 yards.

Marques Valdes-Scantling longest reception over 16.5 yards (-118)

Throwing conditions are never any good in Cleveland in December, but Rodgers tried to get the ball deep down the field to Valdes-Scantling anyway. Despite catching three passes for no more than nine yards, MVS had an average depth of target of 13.0 yards from his team-high nine targets in the absence of Metcalf. Against the Ravens’ secondary, prone to coverage breakdowns, there could be some more success if Rodgers keeps looking to stretch the field with his former Packers teammate.

Anytime touchdownZay Flowers (+160)

After seven total touchdowns in his rookie season, it had been a frustrating stretch of more than a season-and-a-half for anyone invested in Flowers to score, as he found the end zone just five times in 30 games despite 210 targets and 19 carries, while other lesser-talents were scoring at an unusually-high rate relative to their overall usage. However, Flowers has scored in three consecutive games, including an 18-yard rushing touchdown, and a mathematically improbable stat line might be starting to correct itself.

With so much attention expected to be paid on Henry after his scoring splurge last week, and the Steelers’ reputation for spying well on Jackson, Flowers should find some single-coverage opportunities against the Steelers’ aging secondary.

Kenneth Gainwell (+195)

While Jaylen Warren is the likely goal-line option each week, Gainwell can score in a variety of ways (four times on the ground and three through air), as he’s turned into a key security blanket for Rodgers. From a matchup perspective, Gainwell had eight touches/targets in the red zone in Week 14 to just two for Warren, scoring on one of four carries, while being a main character in the passing game with seven targets.

Jonnu Smith (+450)

The Steelers have started handing the ball off to Smith, and while I’m not sure what the football reason is for this, we don’t argue with the strategy — we just bet it. That evident desire to get Smith the ball alone might be enough to make them a valuable long-shot bet, but the injuries mentioned above also moves Smith up the hierarchy for a big-bodied scoring option for Pittsburgh.

You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.

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Source: “AOL Sports”